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Who will emerge as winners in the race for BPO supremacy?

Today's international Business Process Outsourcing (BPO) market is where the IT Outsourcing market was nine or ten years ago. The promise for new entrants to this market is 10-15% compound growth over the next ten years. Commentators believe that because BPO can encompass all mid and back-office functions, the growth curve will be even steeper. Morgan Chambers (www.morganchambers.com), in a study carried out last year, concluded that 56% of the FTSE 100 outsourced processes to some extent and that BPO is an agenda item on almost every executive board meeting.

Optimism about the market needs to be tempered with reality. There are opportunities to generate profitable annuity businesses and the barriers to entry for those organizations with access to large corporates may be lower, but the market is immature and few of those operating in it have gained the experience necessary for sustainable, profitable BPO operations.

Poor understanding of client needs and unrealistic expectations means some bad deals are being done, especially where the only motivation is cost saving. BPO is about business process transformation so that it becomes more efficient and as a result will cost less; not the other way round. Both parties need to set and measure performance against objectives that include efficiency, but also impact operational flexibility, risk transfer and other benefits.

Clients have the right to ask suppliers to innovate. But if both have not clearly documented where they want to end up, they will get solutions that meet the supplier's needs, not theirs. BPO is not an IT deal; neither is it pure financial engineering. The best deals are likely to be hybrid transactions that link operations to the direction of the client's business. Dealing with all the issues around People, Process and Technology is essential.

Most clients do not have the skills that make BPO firm successful or the drive to develop or acquire them. Nor is there on the supplier side a large pool of experienced BPO providers at this stage of the market?s development.

Emerging organizations succeed in the developing BPO market because of an ability to move the business from a transactional model, to one that has strategic importance to clients and future partners. They recruit credible, consultative and commercially minded individuals who drive the business forward, internally as well as externally. Successful companies know that deals will take between 12 and 18 months to develop even profits may not be generated for up to three to four years in a seven to ten year deal.

Ultimately, risk analysis, determined management and luck all play their part. Timing is key as we estimate that by 2004/2005 IBM, EDS, CSC and other 'big' players will be ready to participate in this market. This gives the early adopters a window of 18 months to two years to establish BPO concepts, sell the first deals and become the incumbent player in their chosen sectors.